South Korea said that the recent increase in financial and foreign exchange market volatility will actively respond to reverse market sentiment. The South Korean government said in a joint statement that the recent increase in financial and foreign exchange market volatility is somewhat excessive considering the fundamentals of South Korea's economic stability and the stability of the external environment. The government and the Bank of Korea are capable of coping with the market and will actively respond to reverse market sentiment. Pay close attention to market trends and will use all measures to stabilize the market. South Korean Finance Minister Choe Sang-mu, Central Bank Governor Lee Chang-yong and financial regulators meet every day to evaluate the financial market.Macquarie: Raise the forecast of USD/JPY to 140 JPY by the end of 2025 from 125 JPY.Six Guatemalans were arrested on suspicion of an immigrant truck accident. On December 9, local time, the United States and Guatemala jointly announced that six Guatemalans were arrested. They are suspected of human smuggling and involved in the accident that the vehicle carrying immigrants overturned in Mexico in 2021. The suspect will be charged with conspiracy, endangering life, causing serious personal injury and causing death. In 2021, a truck carrying more than 160 immigrants crashed into a bridge pillar of an overpass in Tustra Gutierrez, the capital of Chiapas in southern Mexico, killing more than 50 people.
Australia's business confidence has fallen sharply, and the economic outlook is not optimistic. Australia's business confidence index fell sharply in November, and the current situation index measuring employment, sales and profitability has further weakened, once again indicating that the private sector in the economy is facing heavy pressure. According to a survey released by the National Bank of Australia on Tuesday, the business confidence index dropped by 8 points to -3, reversing the gains in October. The status quo index dropped from 7 to 2. "Overall, the survey shows that growth continued to be weak in the fourth quarter," the bank said in the report. As the capacity utilization rate is still above average, it may take more time for price pressure to fully return to normal. The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its last interest rate decision this year in a few hours, and it is almost certain that the policy interest rate will remain at a 13-year high of 4.35%. Last week's data showed that Australia's GDP was weak again in the third quarter, prompting traders to advance their expectations of interest rate cuts from May next year to April.The number of bonus-themed ETFs has increased from 10 billion to two managers, both of whom are Huatai Bairui. The Politburo meeting has once again triggered the discussion of switching market funds to large-cap blue chips, and the scale of dividend-themed ETFs has quietly reached a new high. The latest scale shows that the scale of 49 dividend-themed ETFs in the whole market exceeds 90 billion. Among them, Huatai Bairui dividend low-wave ETF reached 10.409 billion yuan. Since the beginning of this year, its scale and share have increased by over 7.8 billion yuan and 6.5 billion copies respectively, making it the second dividend-themed ETF that broke through 10 billion yuan. On the previous trading day, the scale of Huatai Berry dividend ETF exceeded 20 billion, becoming the first 20 billion dividend ETF in China. At present, the total scale of five dividend-themed ETF products under Huatai Bairui exceeds 32.6 billion yuan.Many countries condemned Israel's control of the Syrian-Israeli military buffer zone in the Golan Heights, and Israeli troops invaded the Syrian-Israeli military buffer zone in the Golan Heights on the 8th. On the 9th, Israeli Defense Minister Katz ordered the Israeli army to fully control the buffer zone between Israel and Syria. The Israeli army's actions have been strongly condemned by Qatar, Iraq and other governments. On the 9th, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Qatar issued a statement strongly condemning the control of the Syrian post in the Golan Heights by the Israel Defense Forces. On the same day, the Iraqi Foreign Ministry issued a statement condemning Israel's control of the military buffer zone and the nearby land between it and Syria, and stressed that this act was a flagrant violation of international law and relevant resolutions of international legitimacy. In addition, the foreign ministries of Egypt and Jordan also issued statements on the same day, strongly condemning Israel's aggression, saying that it violated international law. The statement also called on the UN Security Council to take a firm stand against Israel's occupation.
Many countries have issued travel warnings to South Korea. "Is it safe to travel to South Korea?" On the 9th, travelnoire, a platform focusing on African tourists, raised such a question. According to the report, the recent political events in South Korea have cast a shadow over this popular tourist destination. In fact, as the emergency martial law storm in South Korea continues to ferment, many countries have issued travel warnings to South Korea. South Korea's "Asian Economy" reported on the 9th that the political and social uncertainty in South Korea has further intensified, and the inbound tourism market in South Korea, which has just resumed after the epidemic, is once again facing severe challenges. South Korea's New Zealand News Agency reported that due to the increasing political uncertainty in South Korea, many countries have issued travel warnings to South Korea.CICC interprets the meeting of the Politburo in December: the fiscal policy next year is expected to be significantly higher than this year. CICC issued a document saying that the tone of the Politburo in September will be continued, and this Politburo meeting will further inject confidence into the market, and there will be many new formulations in policy. From the perspective of policy objectives, the demand for growth is more clear, and the expression of "property market and stock market" is also very clear. From the policy direction, expanding domestic demand ranks first, and the tendency to boost consumption and improve people's livelihood is further highlighted. From the policy tone, monetary and fiscal policies are more active, and "extraordinary countercyclical adjustment" is put forward for the first time. In terms of specific policy prospects, we believe that the following aspects are worthy of attention: the intensity of fiscal policy next year is expected to be significantly higher than this year; The loose space of monetary policy may be opened through comprehensive policies, and the structural monetary policy may be significantly overweight; Expand domestic demand in an all-round way, and incremental measures may focus more on consumption; Further promote reform and opening up. Generally speaking, the policy mix is in line with what we judge as "tight credit, loose money and wide finance" in the second half of the financial cycle.Ping An Securities: In 2025, the A-share market will have more flexibility in the slow-release growth style of key pricing risks. Ping An Securities Research Report pointed out that in 2025, the A-share market will have more flexibility in the slow-release growth style of key pricing risks. Specifically, structural investment opportunities are increasing. 1) scientific and technological innovation, that is, technology industries that benefit from the support of domestic new quality productivity policies and can cope with overseas risks, including TMT and artificial intelligence; 2) Manufacturing growth, that is, advanced manufacturing sectors with global competitiveness and expected marginal improvement in industrial structure, including power equipment (photovoltaic, lithium battery, etc.), new energy vehicles, national defense and military industry, etc.; 3) domestic demand consumption, that is, the consumption sector that is expected to be repaired by fundamentals under the support of domestic demand policy, and pay attention to some real estate infrastructure chains that are reversed; 4) Commodity price increase, paying attention to ferrous metals that benefit from the stabilization of real estate, and other commodity price increase sectors with potential disturbances on the supply side.
Strategy guide 12-13
Strategy guide
12-13